• Amidst bets on cut production, «Platts» expects 75.5 dollars per barrel of oil in 2019

    28/11/2018

    The international oil company Platts expected the average price of Brent crude to be $ 75.50 per barrel next year, based on a survey conducted by 11 banks and large oil companies.

    It suggested that OPEC is likely to reduce oil production at the next meeting by at least one million bpd.

    "Despite current market downturns and the current signs of weakness, oil demand growth remains intact," a recent IAEA report said.

    It added that the participants in Platts survey lowered their expectations for Brent crude prices compared to the previous month.

    It noted that at that time when oil prices reached their highest level in four years due to fears of large losses in the Iranian offer, banks had expected Brent crude to average $ 78.51 per barrel in 2019.

    The report noted that for 2018, Brent crude is expected to average $ 73.91, compared to expectations last month's survey of $ 74.40, compared to the average price of Brent crude of $ 73.26 so far this year.

     

    The report pointed out that the main reason behind the banks' view of Brent crude prices recovering from the current level of $ 63 a barrel is the expectations of the reduction of OPEC production at its meeting in early December by about one million barrels a day or more in order to support prices and prevent a new abundance in supply, and then push the price of oil back to the level of $ 70 a barrel or more.

    It noted that banks such as "HSBC", "Societe Generale", and "Barclays" are on the conviction that the need to approve the OPEC cuts by at least one million barrels per day, and that anything less than that or any unconvincing decision will lead to further price bleeding.

     

    Platts' report considered that fears of slowing demand may be overstated.

    It added that Societe Generale expects global demand to grow at a healthy rate of 1.3 million bpd this year and 1.4 million bpd next year.

    It pointed out that JPMorgan lowered its forecast for Brent crude for 2019 because of the expected increase in supply from North America in the second half of next year, where the bank is currently likely to average the price of Brent crude to $ 73 a barrel next year compared to the previous forecast at $ 83.50.

     

    In a related context, analysts expected oil prices continue to fluctuate during the week, after Brent crude lost about 11 per cent and US crude 10 per cent over the past week, due to concerns over supply glut.

    Analysts believe that the downward trend dominates the oil market but may receive some support from improved demand indicators and a reduction in production expected from the OPEC producers' alliance and beyond during the meeting expected early next month.

     

    In this context, Robert Stehrer, Director of Vienna International Institute for Economic Studies, said to the Economist, "Production in Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States is at record levels at the same time, which confirms the need to deal differently with the market, which is already going through a state of obscurity and abundance of supplies sharply."

    Stehrer said that demand in January 2019 will certainly be much lower than demand next month, which will make producers closer to a decision to cut production in an attempt to revive the price level and halt the ongoing deterioration after Brent lost about 20 Cent in about a month.

     

    For his part, Seiven Schimmel, Director of VG Industri, explained to the Economist that the top producers, headed by Saudi Arabia, are keen not to flood the market with crude oil, which reflected of the speech of Engineer Khalid Al-Faleh, Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources.

    He stressed the need to take into account the needs of demand and reduce supplies because of the current abundance and make every effort to achieve balance and stability in the market.

    He pointed out that the market is in a state of uncertainty and fog, which will reflect on price fluctuations.

    He noted that weak demand is expected due to the marked slowdown in economic growth and the widening negative effects of the US-China trade war on the world economy.

     

    Furthermore, Dr. Nagendra Komandanta, Senior Analyst at International Institute for Energy Conservation, said to the Economist, "The price loss of $ 20 for Brent crude in about 40 days requires a significant reduction in supply, which OPEC is working to put forward strongly at the next meeting in Vienna."

    This will strengthen the consensus, consultations and understandings between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the largest producers of crude oil in the world.

    Komandanta praised Saudi Arabia's keenness to avoid a sharp, price-slashing fall in 2014 due to oversupply, where it confirmed that the repetition of the supply scenario may lead to severe losses to producers, including US producers, as well as slowing investment and contraction of economic growth.

     

    Oil prices fell by more than 6 per cent at the end of last week to their lowest level in more than a year amid fears of oversupply, although two major producers are considering a cut in output.

    Oil supplies are growing faster than demand and to avoid a significant increase in unused fuel stocks similar to those in 2015, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is considering starting production cuts after a planned meeting on December 6.

    But this has so far had little impact in support of prices, which have fallen more than 20 percent since the beginning of this month, after seven consecutive weeks of losses.

    Prices are heading towards the biggest monthly drop since late 2014, and markets are also affected by the trade war between the United States and China, the world's two largest economies and the world's largest oil consumer.

     

    "The market is taking into account an economic slowdown," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at PricewaterhouseCoopers in Chicago.

    "They expect that trade talks with China will not go well, "he added, in a reference to expected talks between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit.

     

    Global Brent crude futures fell to the nearest $ 3.80, or 6.07 per cent, to settle at $ 58.80 per barrel after touching $ 58.41 earlier in the session, its lowest level since October 2017.

    US LME futures closed down $ 4.21, or 7.71 per cent, to settle at $ 50.42 per barrel after recording $ 50.53, the weakest since October 2017.

    Brent ended the week with a loss of over 11% while US crude fell more than 10%.

    The Market fears have grown from weak demand, after China said, "its exports of gasoline fell to a lowest level in more than a year amid abundant supply of fuel in Asia and the world."

    Oil production is also growing rapidly this year and to respond to the weak demand, OPEC is moving to a combined production cut of 1.4 million bpd.

    "If OPEC decides to cut production at its meeting next month, oil prices may recover," analysts say.

     

    Trading was mild due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, and oil prices are still under pressure from the rise in US crude inventories, which jumped 4.9 million barrels to 446.91 million barrels last week, the highest level since December.

    The US Energy Information Administration said, "US crude production also remained at a record high of 11.7 million barrels per day."

     

    US energy companies cut the number of oil diggers this week for the first time in three weeks as oil prices fell to their lowest level in more than a year.

    Baker Hughes Energy Services, in its closely monitored weekly report, stated, "The number of active oil drilling in America declined by three excavators in the week ending 21 November, which is bringing the total number to 885 diggers."

    After a modest increase of five rigs in the third quarter, energy companies added 22 rigs since the beginning of the last quarter.

    The number of active oil rigs in America, a preliminary indicator of future production, is higher than a year ago when it reached 747, as energy companies increase spending this year to boost production to take advantage of rising prices.​

© All Rights Reserved for Asharqia Chamber